Can a fintech startup disrupt retail trading in Australia

If you have ever looked into what it takes to buy or trade in the stock market, you would have encountered platforms like Commsec, Stake and Trading View. When I did, I was viewing them both as a customer and also as fellow digital products builder. With my product builder hat on, my initial impression was: Holy barrier to entry Batman! Just look at how many features these platforms provide! 

But time has allowed me to more clearly distinguish my customer impressions from my product analysis perspectives. And I think I’ve done a 180° on that initial impression, and am now of the view that a lean, hyper-focused fintech may well be able to disrupt the Australian retail trading landscape.


Is the juice worth the squeeze

Let’s begin by considering who the target customer would be, and based on that what the total addressable market size could look like.

The proposed target customer would be someone who:

  • wants their funds to do more than attract average savings interest rates,
  • may be locked out of the housing market but has built up a nest egg while saving for the property deposit,
  • is aware of the power of capital markets but may not be fluent in investment or trading knowledge,
  • wants quicker returns from capital markets, in contrast to maintaining a longer, five-ten year horizons for property investments and
  • highly values convenience and low-zero fee propositions.

We know there was a flurry of new retail traders coming online in 2020 through 2022 when they found new interests during extended COVID lockdowns. But have enough retail traders stayed active and with our narrowly defined prospective trader, would there still be a TAM worth going after?  

If we look to the US for perspective, the Australian retail trade total addressable market could be AUD 200 million - 1 billion per year.

U.S. retail trading benchmarks and estimations

Metric US estimate (2025) Estimate explanation
Retail share of equity volume ~18–20% Based on SIFMA and exchanges such as Cboe EDGX retail share data (~17.9–20.5%) (daytrading.com)
Total U.S. equity turnover ~US $9–10 trillion/year Implied from retail % and known retail volume (e.g. $1.5–2.0T = 18–20% of total)
Retail trading volume ~US $1.5–2.0 trillion/year Derived from retail share of total turnover = typical retail flows via brokers
Average Revenue per User (ARPU) ~US $100–200/year Public disclosures from Robinhood’s Q1 2025 and annualized ARPU (~$145) (worldmetrics.orgCoinLaw)

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Component Value Explanation
U.S. adult population ~260 million U.S. Census Bureau mid-2025 estimates (~334M total population, ~78% adults)
Households owning stock ~62% of 132.6M = 82M Gallup (2023–2024): 61–62% of U.S. households own stock directly or via funds
Actively trading individuals ~25% of 82M = 20.6M Assume 1 active trader per household. Finra/Vanguard panel found ~25% of retail brokerage account holders executed trades in a given year (i.e. were actively trading, not passive investing) Investopedia.
% of adults trading actively ~8–10% 20.6 million ÷ (78%  adults of 340 million US population) ≈ 7.9% of adults. Gitnux, FINRA: ~15% of retail investors trade frequently; scaled to total adult population
     

Extrapolating to estimate Australian retail trade

Metric Australian estimate (2025) Estimate explanation
Population ~26 million Official national estimate
ASX annual turnover A$1.2 trillion/year ASX reports A$4.7B average daily turnover × ~250 trading days (Australian Bureau of StatisticsAustralian Securities ExchangeMarketWatchAustralian Securities Exchange)
Retail share of ASX turnover ~10–20% Based on historical retail share studies and comparative international ratios (Firstlinks)
Retail trading volume A$120–240 billion/year Applying 10–20% retail participation to total ASX turnover
Trades/year per user ~10–20 trades/year Conservative estimate relative to U.S. behavior
Revenue/user/year A$50–A$200 Based on fee-per-trade models (e.g. A$5–10/trade × trades/year)
Estimated platform revenue pool A$200 million – A$1 billion Aggregate of retail volume × monetization assumptions across active users

Bull and bear cases for a brokerage disrupting the Australian market

Regardless of whether our hyper-focused, lean-featured brokerage offered Aussies US or Australian trading opportunities, the market is sizeable enough for this concept to be commercially viable.


The Bull Case: Why Disruption Might Work

1. Underserved customers

  • Younger investors prefer speed, clarity, and mobile-first convenience.
  • Legacy platforms like Selfwealth often feel clunky or unintuitive.
  • There’s appetite for something as clean as Robinhood, but built with Australian context.

2. Lean MVPs Can Work If the Scope Is Right

  • By deeply understanding one segment, a new player can outperform incumbents bloated with legacy UX.
  • When it launched in 2015 Robinhood prioritised frictionless onboarding experience and underweighted features like options trading, charting and technical indicators capabilities (businesswire.com).
  • By focusing on a highly usable app, Robinhood has attracted a demographic that values zero fees over deal-flow revenues and shown that Commsec doesn’t need to be replaced in order to compete with it.

3. Precedent in Other Markets

  • Robinhood, Public, SoFi, and others succeeded in the US despite huge incumbents like Charles Schwab, Fidelity and Interactive Brokers.
  • Webull is expanding rapidly with slick UX and zero commissions — showing that even late entrants can win.

4. Rising Discontent With the Status Quo

  • Selfwealth has a loyal base but dated UX.
  • Stake has faced criticism for support, custody structures, or platform speed.
  • Many users still maintain multiple brokerage accounts — a signal that nobody’s winning all their trust.

The Bear Case: Why Disruption Might Fail

1. The Feature Paradox

  • Traders equate features with trust and legitimacy. A minimal MVP might feel incomplete or unsafe — especially where real money is involved.
  • Licensing (AFSL), custody models, KYC/AML, and t reporting complexity all raise the barrier to entry.
  • Lean approaches often underestimate these burdens.

2. High Switching Costs

  • Users are slow to move once funds are deposited, especially with tax reporting and portfolio history tied to current brokers.

Conclusion

I think there’s enough of a bull case that a Australian-based brokerage focusing on 1.5 - 2 million actively trading Australian adults, providing them with a lean-featured, UX-optimised, no-fee, US markets-only platform would significantly disrupt the Australian retail trading landscape.


This post was created with a little (a lot) of help from ChatGPT